User:IMF expects game exports to boost Macau's economic growth to 59% in 2023

According to the Asia Gaming Brief within the recently announced global economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund predicts that the Macau Special Administrative Region (SAR) economy will grow 58.9% in 2023, and based on this forecast, the recovery rate of GDP in Macau will reach 86% before the pandemic by 2024.

Game exports as a key growth component:

The IMF outlook takes into account Macau's 26.8% decline in 2022 and the recent economic development following the reopening of casino resorts and other facilities as of January 8, 2023, and also updated its outlook indicating that the SAR economy is likely to grow 20.6% in 2024.

The report observed that the region's GDP lost 60% of its value during 2019-2022 and decreased from $54 billion in 2019 to $22.1 billion in 2022, indicating that the pandemic and related closures had a significant impact on the region's economy. Therefore, the IMF reportedly stated the export of game services as a key factor for Macao's economic growth and presented the future outlook for the region based on the industry's turnover rate.

Expected unemployment reduction:

Sources said the IMF also predicted the SAR unemployment rate would fall to 2.7% in 2023. The rate was 3.3% during the first quarter of this year, down from 3.4% during the observation period, the lowest unemployment rate since the first quarter of 2022, according to data reportedly provided by the Macau Statistical Bureau.

COVID-related restrictions caused a 26% drop in visitors in 2022, reaching just 5.7 million, the lowest level in the region since 1999, but the region opened in January this year and the arrival rate in the first quarter of 2023 rebounded to a similar level to pre-pandemic levels when a record 39.4 million tourists visited the SAR in 2019.

However, the IMF predicts overall growth and a decrease in unemployment in the future, taking into account the current economic trends, and the Macau GDP growth rate in 2025 is forecast to be 8.5%, and China expects 5.2% economic activity growth this year in line with the 5% growth target set by the Chinese authorities.

Increase growth with more arrivals:

A strong recovery from increased city arrivals is expected by some forecasting agencies. Last month, rating agency Fitch reportedly predicted that gaming revenue would recover to nearly half of 2019 levels. "The elimination of pandemic control measures, resumption of mainland package travel, reduced staffing shortages and supply-side capacity constraints will significantly boost visit figures for 2023," Fitch was quoted as saying.

Other industry experts also expect an enhanced recovery in the coming months, based on the fact that 5 million tourists visited the region in the first quarter, which is usually considered to be 'bad in season'. The Macau government's tourism agency reportedly predicts the city could reach its 20 million goal by the end of the year, using the same figures. The region's GDP growth of 58.9 percent, which the IMF estimates, looks more feasible as the year begins, as the increased arrivals will continue to improve Macau's total gaming revenue. 바다이야기